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Catherine Engmann Group

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Egor Shilov
Egor Shilov


El Niño means Little Boy in Spanish. South American fishermen first noticedperiods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s. The full name they used wasEl Niño de Navidad, because El Niño typically peaks around December.

La Ni


El Niño can affectour weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move southof its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer andwarmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usualand have increased flooding.

El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North.

El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normalconditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrientrich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep,there are fewerphytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affectseverything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail andalbacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, orsimply "a cold event." La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niñaevents, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off thewest coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to thesurface.

These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought inthe southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a LaNiña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in theNorth. La Niña can also lead to a moresevere hurricane season.

La Niña causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During La Niña winters, the South sees warmer and drier conditions than usual. The North and Canada tend to be wetter and colder.

During La Niña, waters off the Pacific coast are colder and contain more nutrients than usual.This environment supports more marine life and attracts more cold-water species, like squid andsalmon, to places like the California coast.

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The El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on climate patterns in various parts of the world. This naturally occurring phenomenon involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere. Scientific progress on the understanding and modelling of this phenomenon has improved prediction skills to within a range of one to nine months in advance, giving society the opportunity to prepare for associated hazards such as heavy rains, floods and drought.

The state of ENSO will continue to be carefully monitored by WMO Members and partners. More detailed interpretations of the implications for regional climate variability will be carried out routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

The protracted La Niña conditions, which began in September 2020, with a short break in June-August 2021 are still continuing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean as of mid-November 2022. The sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific ranged from -0.9 to -1.4 degrees Celsius (for the week centered on 09 November 2022), with below-average subsurface temperatures in the eastern and east-central Pacific sustaining the cooler sea surface temperatures. The overlying atmospheric conditions, including surface and upper-level winds and patterns of cloudiness and rainfall, remain consistent with La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI: defined by the standardized Tahiti minus Darwin sea-level pressure difference), which had shown a significant increase in September, now has a downward trend. Anomalously dry conditions have been observed in the central Pacific (west of the International Date Line), with enhanced convection and precipitation over Indonesia and the western Pacific. On the whole, observed oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate a continuation of the current La Niña event.

Using the recent observations as the starting point for their dynamical seasonal prediction systems, the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts routinely issue global-scale climate forecasts for the coming months. Their latest forecasts and expert assessment indicate that there is a moderate probability for the sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to remain colder than normal during next two overlapping seasons (December-February and January-March). The likelihood of a continuation of the current La Niña is forecasted to be about 75% for December-February 2022/2023, but to decrease to about 60% during January-March, and to 40% in February-April 2023. Termination of the multi-year La Niña, leading to ENSO-neutral conditions, is favored during February-April with a 55% chance. The probability increases to 70% during March-May. The chance of El Niño developing is negligible until later in boreal spring, increasing to around 25% by the end of the forecast period in May-July 2023.

The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) including the Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME).

The forecasting of Pacific Ocean developments is undertaken in a number of ways. Complex dynamical models project the evolution of the tropical Pacific Ocean from its currently observed state. Statistical forecast models can also capture some of the precursors of such developments. Expert analysis of the current situation adds further value, especially in interpreting the implications of the evolving situation below the ocean surface. All forecast methods try to incorporate the effects of ocean-atmosphere interactions within the climate system.

The meteorological and oceanographic data that allow El Niño and La Niña episodes to be monitored and forecast are drawn from national and international observing systems. The exchange and processing of the data are carried out under programmes coordinated by the WMO.

The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared on a quasi-regular basis (approximately every three months) through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoring and predicting this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by WMO and IRI.

The monitoring component of the GSCU is based on global climate monitoring information compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States of America, in collaboration with other global climate monitoring centres.

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The crystal structure of the complex La(43)Ni(17)Mg(5) ternary phase was solved and refined from X-ray single crystal diffraction data. It is characterized by a very large unit cell and represents a new structure type: La(43)Ni(17)Mg(5) - orthorhombic, Cmcm, oS260, a = 10.1895(3), b = 17.6044(14), c = 42.170(3) A, Z = 4, wR1 = 0.0598, wR2 = 0.0897, 4157 F(2) values, 176 variables. The crystal structures of the La-rich La-Ni-Mg intermetallic phases La(4)NiMg, La(23)Ni(7)Mg(4), and La(43)Ni(17)Mg(5) have been comparatively analyzed. The constitutive fragments of these structures are binary polyicosahedral core-shell clusters of Mg(4)La(22) and Mg(5)La(24) compositions together with binary polytetrahedral clusters of nickel and lanthanum atoms. The structures of the Mg-La clusters are described in detail as a unique feature of the analyzed intermetallic phases; the dodecahedral Voronoi polyhedra are proposed as a useful tool to characterize polyicosahedral clusters. The arrangements of the building units in the studied phases show some regularities; particularly the i(4)3, i(5)3 and L-i(4) units, made up of polyicosahedral clusters and analogous to the Kreiner i(3) and L units, are proposed as structural blocks.


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